Nick Zito, the quintessential New Yorker, happens to be a very good horseman and it’s no surprise that he has won two Belmont Stakes already with Birdstone in 2004 and Da’ Tara in 2008.
In a video shot the other morning outside his barn at Saratoga, Zito talked about his two runners for the 142nd Running of the G1 Belmont Stakes, Fly Down, and current 3 to 1 favorite, Ice Box.
Watching the video, it seems Zito is leaning elsewhere when talking about the way Ice Box is coming up to the race. When talk turns to Fly Down his eyes get a bit wider and he cracks a little smile, as if he has another surprise for the odds makers who list Fly Down third choice at 9 to 2 behind First Dude.
In contrast, Drosselmeyer, a recent second to Fly Down in the G2 Dwyer is listed at 12 to 1. Yet with a noted “foot problem” recently worked a bullet over the track.
The numbers don’t add up.
Belmont has the reputation of being a tricky track and Jockey, John Velazquez probably said it best when he summed up they way he rides the track…”Most important, you got to know where the poles are and then you got to ride the racetrack the way it’s playing,” so in theory any theory is just that until after the race.
On paper, there doesn’t appear to be much pace in the race and Fly Down looks to be poised in a stalking position similar to his Dwyer performance and at 9 to 2 he maybe a better bet than Ice Box even with his Kentucky Derby finish.
But the real ‘rat in the Ice Box’ just may be the 10 to 1 odds on Uptowncharlybrown. Follow your nose and see where it leads.
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