Posts Tagged ‘kentucky derby’

Go East ‘youngman’

Thursday, May 20th, 2010

If no one else has realized it yet, Garrett Gomez sure has. He’s packed his tack and headed east to the circuit of the stars of the Derby.

To win the Kentucky Derby, Calvin Borel and Kent Desormeaux have ridden at Belmont, Pimlico, Gulfstream and the like, because that’s horse racing American style. Nothing fancy. No plastic, wax or rubber to put a bounce in the step of their young hopefuls. Just good old fashioned dirt. The kind at Churchill.

Gomez has ridden out west for years where he has comfortably led the jockey colony away from the star circuit.  And until recently that was working just fine.

Stars of the past like Gary Stevens, Eddie D., McCarron and Shoemaker all did it from out west. Even the ‘now’ jockey, Victor Espinoza, did it for Baffert in 2002 when War Emblem won the Kentucky Derby.

As a matter of fact, that’s where all the stars of yesteryear rode, and shined so bright you couldn’t see a difference between riding in the east or west if you wanted to win the Derby.

Boy those were the days. A jockey could pick his spot. The sunny California Pacific coastline, or the Bluegrass of Kentucky and the Everglades of Florida. Just thinking of those days brings back fond memories of Affirmed holding off Alydar in grueling races to become the last horse to win the Triple Crown. Steve Cauthen rode Affirmed. He was 18.



Gomez isn’t getting any younger and he has now watched, from behind, Calvin Borel win three of the last four runnings of America’s crown jewel of racing. And he must realize why.

Only time will tell what other effects the switch to synthetic surfaces might have on the Triple Crown. Literally, after several years of trial and error, Gomez must have decided that to win the Derby the horse is going to have to come from the east.

On Saturday, Monmouth Park opens with a bang! They’re touting this season with $1,000,000 purse days and that’s attractive. How long Monmouth is able to maintain the purse promises and keep a top rider like Gomez interested is a matter of time.

And at 38, you can bet he realizes that for him to win the Kentucky Derby, it’s also a matter of time.

Horse Racing Betting

Thursday, May 6th, 2010

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Water the ‘Roses’ and the price goes up

Friday, April 30th, 2010

As a horse racing fan the days and hours leading up to the Kentucky Derby are anxious times. This is the Superbowl of horse racing in America, and it’s history is rooted deeply in the bluegrass of Kentucky.

People come from around the world and tomorrow will be no exception.

Churchill Downs expects somewhere upwards of 100,000 people. According to Weather.com, everyone can expect an 80% chance of rain.

Derby week opened with Escendereya the heavy favorite. Then Lookin’ At Lucky assumed the favorites role. But on the eve of the Derby as the sun sets on another day we have a new favorite, and he’s 7 to 1.

A $2 future wager on Super Saver in any of the three Derby future wager pools would yield no less than $43.20, if he wins. A bet on him tomorrow returns around $14.00.


So many things happen to affect the final odds between the time future wager pool one opens, and post time for the Kentucky Derby, that it’s hard to place a wager on the future with much confidence. Injury could knock your horse out. He could run off the road…it’s a long road. Or, it could rain.

When you bet into the future pools you’re essentially handicapping a horse — not a horse race. And if you’re confident that you’ve handicapped all the angles when you bet a double sawbuck on a 24 to 1 shot, then suddenly, and quite possibly, you could be cashing a ‘Super Saver.’

There’s Blind Luck, and there’s…

Thursday, April 29th, 2010

In horse racing, the odds are established by the amount of wagers bet into a pari-mutuel pool, less the respective taxes withheld on behalf of the proper agencies who ‘referee’ the betting. What’s left is paid out to those presenting a winning ticket at the window.

Tomorrow’s 136th running of the $500,000 G1 Kentucky Oaks has fourteen betting interests. Blind Luck will open as the 6 to 5 favorite, which means that you will receive $11.00  for every $5.00 winning ticket you present at the mutuel window.

Of the remaining thirteen horses, three are 8 to 1, and the remainder are 10 to 1 or more.

From the example above, you could bet the same $5 to win on any of the three horses that are 8 to 1. And assuming that one of the three won, and you held a winning ticket, it would be worth at least $45.00 (8 x $5 = $40 + $5 original bet).

The fact is, that on any given day, the history of favorites winning a race is approximately 33%. For many fans, the Oaks is a once a year event, and the thrill they get betting $5 to win is everything they expect and more.

Before you place a bet on Blind Luck because you like her name or because everyone else does, believe the fact that there’s a 67% chance that history will repeat itself, and that’s better than believing in Blind Luck.

Kentucky Oaks Picks: 13 – 8 – 5 – 7