On Saturday Bob Baffert sends out Lookin’ At Lucky for his final prep before the Kentucky Derby in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.
From a betting standpoint it’s a tough race to handicap even though Lookin’ At Lucky looks pretty good on paper at 4 to 5 odds. And that should make any ‘exotic attempt’ to cash a winning ticket that much easier, assuming Baffert is trying to win it.
Here’s why I won’t be putting my money down in the G1 Santa Anita Derby this Saturday. Baffert was quoted in the Daily Racing Form saying:
“I just want him to come out of the race healthy and alive,” and “It’s not a do-or-die race for me. If I can keep him fit and healthy, he can carry me the rest of the way.”
Well that’s nice to know for the other owners and trainers who are willing to try and take that statement to the bank this weekend. Even a second or third placed finish for a purse of $750,000 on Saturday might be enough in earnings to get into the Derby.
It’s understandable that Baffert wanted or needed to get one more ‘hard work’ into Lookin’ At Lucky before the Kentucky Derby. He has a right to run him and I’m sure they will be trying. But you have to be able to read between the lines of the Daily Racing Form. And sometimes those lines tell you to wonder that if Gomez gets stuck down on the inside or blocked in mid-stretch would he instinctively try to win it or instructively try to protect the horse at ALL cost.
Sit back and enjoy the race. If you like Lookin’ At Lucky this time you should love him in a few weeks at a bigger price. And at least you know they’ll be trying as hard as everyone else.
Are you Lookin’ At Lucky?
