Gulfstream Park Past Performances
Check out the Race of the Day analysis now! Today’s race of the day is a good optional claiming allowance race bringing together some of last years three year olds like Break Water Edison, Imperial Council, Warrior’s Reward and others.
The field is well balanced and Imperial Council will be the likely favorite at post time.
Good luck!
Sometimes it’s best to stop and think before saying anything and that’s the approach we’ve taken after this weekend’s Florida Derby in which Quality Road broke the track record for 1 1/8 mile distance.
Now that the dirt has settled, was the speed favoring surface at Gulfstream Park unfair to Dunkirk as Todd Pletcher implied after the race? And what does it mean for Quality Road in the Kentucky Derby?
During the week leading up to the race there was speculation that Pletcher would run Europe to ensure a fast early pace. Europe may be fast but there was no way a second time maiden starter would have been the right rabbit for Dunkirk who had won his only two starts from off the pace against maiden and allowance runners. Europe stayed in the barn.
Off two strong performances, Dunkirk was favorite to beat Quality Road and stamp his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. But, it wasn’t to be and the road was ‘paved’ a different way on Saturday where two track records were broken in one day over a Gulfstream Park surface that has favored speed all meet long.
In the Swale Stakes, Big Drama set a new record for seven furlongs as he outdueled This Ones for Phil only to be disqualified and placed second. Nevertheless, the final time of 1:20.88 was a forecast of things to come for Pletcher.
In the Florida Derby, Quality Road stalked in second before assuming command around the far turn. At the top of the stretch, Garrett Gomez had moved Dunkirk to within a length of the leader and that’s when John Velasquez called on Quality Road and he responded. Pletcher watched Dunkirk’s chance at the Kentucky Derby speed away from him.
The second place finish in the Florida Derby earned Dunkirk $150,000 in graded stakes money but it probably won’t be enough to get him into the Kentucky Derby and another shot at Quality Road — until the Preakness.
There is no doubt that Quality Road is good. His sire, Elusive Quality, has already produced the 2004 Kentucky Derby winner, Smarty Jones. We know he has speed and the stamina to go 1 1/8 miles, but this years group of three year olds are better then those Smarty Jones faced as the stalking speed over the sloppy Churchill surface on that first Saturday in May 2004.
Today, the road to the 2009 Kentucky Derby continues with several stakes races for 3 year old horses including the Fountain of Youth Stakes which will be run at 1 mile for the first time ever and the field is full of contenders and some pretenders.
Click here for free past performances for the Fountain Of Youth.
In handicapping the race, there are three horses entered who have not run a stakes race to date. One of those, Take The Points, is scratched. That leaves #2 Theregoesjojo and #11 Quality Road as the two newcomers to the stakes scene. They both exit a money allowance race in which Theregoesjojo defeated Quality Road as the prohibitive favorite.
Trained by Kenny McPeek, who is only 5% in graded stakes races, Theregoesjojo will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux and is listed at 15 to 1. Quality Road, who may have bled last time, gets Lasix for this race and will be ridden by John Velasquez. He opens at 8 to 1, and for those of you unfamiliar with morning line odds — 8 to 1 is sort of like saying ‘he has a shot’.
The are several speed horses led by Notonthesamepage, Taqarub, and Quality Road and should set up nicely for one of the closers.
The odds maker has made This Ones for Phil the 3 to 1 morning line favorite after posting a 116 Beyer in the Sunshine Million Dash. You may recall there were several trainers who questioned how This Ones for Phil could go improve his Beyer number by 40 points after switching to Richard Dutrow’s barn. On paper, he looks like he has enough conditioning but his early races were in the claiming ranks and unless Dutrow can turn This Ones for Phil into Big Brown I don’t see him beating Dunkirk or Old Fashioned down the line.
Today’s free horse race pick in the Fountain Of Youth is the longshot Theregoesjojo.
Exacta Box: 2, 11, 12
If you were betting at Gulfstream Park today chances are you took notice of the winner in the 5th race, Il Postino, who won in a romp by 12 lengths.
Normally, I wouldn’t think much of a horse who was purchased in September ’07 for $300,000 at a Keeneland yearling sale, and who only beat $20,000 claimers today — but this horse is trained by Todd Pletcher and ran against Warrior’s Reward in a maiden special weight on January 31.
If you’re not familiar with Warrior’s Reward, I had mentioned him in an earlier post when he ran second to Dunkirk who I have made my favorite for this years Kentucky Derby.
Warrior’s Reward beat Il Postino by 12+ lengths on 1/31 then came back to run a winning race while finishing second to the spectacular Dunkirk. After seeing Il Postino crush the field he faced today I went back to see just how strong of an effort Warrior’s Reward was against Dunkirk. You should watch it again because Warrior’s Reward was sitting in fifth down along the rail then moved outside of Dunkirk and looked to have had plenty in the tank for the stretch run but there was no way he was going to beat Dunkirk.
Today, Il Postino was 5/2 going a mile for the $20K tag under John Velasquez. He broke well then settled back into about sixth down the backside. Going into the far turn Velasquez had him on the move and he did it with ease going from sixth to third to first before they hit the top of the stretch then drew off down the lane.
I have long been a fan of the “key race” angle and consider the January 31 maiden win by Warrior’s Reward a key race. More importantly, I consider Dunkirk’s allowance win over Warrior’s Reward to be a phenomenal race.
What do you think?
