In horse racing, the odds are established by the amount of wagers bet into a pari-mutuel pool, less the respective taxes withheld on behalf of the proper agencies who ‘referee’ the betting. What’s left is paid out to those presenting a winning ticket at the window.

Tomorrow’s 136th running of the $500,000 G1 Kentucky Oaks has fourteen betting interests. Blind Luck will open as the 6 to 5 favorite, which means that you will receive $11.00  for every $5.00 winning ticket you present at the mutuel window.

Of the remaining thirteen horses, three are 8 to 1, and the remainder are 10 to 1 or more.

From the example above, you could bet the same $5 to win on any of the three horses that are 8 to 1. And assuming that one of the three won, and you held a winning ticket, it would be worth at least $45.00 (8 x $5 = $40 + $5 original bet).

The fact is, that on any given day, the history of favorites winning a race is approximately 33%. For many fans, the Oaks is a once a year event, and the thrill they get betting $5 to win is everything they expect and more.

Before you place a bet on Blind Luck because you like her name or because everyone else does, believe the fact that there’s a 67% chance that history will repeat itself, and that’s better than believing in Blind Luck.

Kentucky Oaks Picks: 13 – 8 – 5 – 7

As the post positions are drawn for the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby one thing stands out about the race.

In two of the past three years Calvin Borel has ridden the winner. Street Sense in 2007, and Mine That Bird in 2009.

Part of a winning strategy is to look for the points that separate the horses from one another like Beyer points or Beyer Speed Figures. You can follow how many points up or down a horses speed is measured by using Beyer’s speed figure but there are many more variables and we Break I.T. Down into 10 points.

Stay tuned for the 10 points to betting this year’s Kentucky Derby winner after the draw which is happening right now live on HRTV.

Over the years, Todd Pletcher has had many runners in the Kentucky Derby that were good horses. This year he had a great one.

When it was announced that Eskendereya wouldn’t be his ‘main man’ in the 2010 ‘Run for the Roses,’ Pletcher decided to send a ‘girl’ in his place.

Devil May Care’ win in the Bonnie Miss was an impressive performance. And her entry into the Derby gives Pletcher his best remaining shot to win it.

Perhaps Nick Zito said it best. “If you go back, this isn’t the first time that a favorite’s been knocked out,” and “You have to be humble. I could get on my knees right now, because I know where it comes from.”

He could “get on his knees…because he knows where it comes from.” You have to love Zito, Dutrow, and trainers like them, who take the show on the road wherever they run.

Zito mentioned the 1962 and 1966 runnings of the Kentucky Derby when Graustark and Sir Gaylord were the early favorites, respectively. Of particular interest is the story of Graustark who’s trainer was ridiculed for his handling in the weeks leading up to the Derby and his subsequent scratch.

The Derby has a less than favorable history with its favorite runners. Most of them don’t win, and sometimes they don’t get in. Last year I Want Revenge was scratched the morning of the race, and has not run back since. This year it looked like Eskendereya would give John Velasquez his first Kentucky Derby winning ride. Both horses were headed into the Derby starting gate as the favorite after stunning performances in the Wood.

Lookin’ At Lucky is currently the favorite. But that may not be so lucky because history tells us that anything can happen.

And, if they happen to drape the roses over Devil May Care on Saturday it wouldn’t be the first time, and it won’t be the last.

After all, roses are for girls anyway, right?

On Saturday Bob Baffert sends out Lookin’ At Lucky for his final prep before the Kentucky Derby in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.

From a betting standpoint it’s a tough race to handicap even though Lookin’ At Lucky looks pretty good on paper at 4 to 5 odds. And that should make any ‘exotic attempt’ to cash a winning ticket that much easier, assuming Baffert is trying to win it.

Here’s why I won’t be putting my money down in the G1 Santa Anita Derby this Saturday. Baffert was quoted in the Daily Racing Form saying:

“I just want him to come out of the race healthy and alive,” and “It’s not a do-or-die race for me. If I can keep him fit and healthy, he can carry me the rest of the way.”

Well that’s nice to know for the other owners and trainers who are willing to try and take that statement to the bank this weekend. Even a second or third placed finish for a purse of $750,000 on Saturday might be enough in earnings to get into the Derby.

It’s understandable that Baffert wanted or needed to get one more ‘hard work’ into Lookin’ At Lucky before the Kentucky Derby. He has a right to run him and I’m sure they will be trying. But you have to be able to read between the lines of the Daily Racing Form. And sometimes those lines tell you to wonder that if Gomez gets stuck down on the inside or blocked in mid-stretch would he instinctively try to win it or instructively try to protect the horse at ALL cost.

Sit back and enjoy the race. If you like Lookin’ At Lucky this time you should love him in a few weeks at a bigger price. And at least you know they’ll be trying as hard as everyone else.

Are you Lookin’ At Lucky?