Over the years, Todd Pletcher has had many runners in the Kentucky Derby that were good horses. This year he had a great one.

When it was announced that Eskendereya wouldn’t be his ‘main man’ in the 2010 ‘Run for the Roses,’ Pletcher decided to send a ‘girl’ in his place.

Devil May Care’ win in the Bonnie Miss was an impressive performance. And her entry into the Derby gives Pletcher his best remaining shot to win it.

Perhaps Nick Zito said it best. “If you go back, this isn’t the first time that a favorite’s been knocked out,” and “You have to be humble. I could get on my knees right now, because I know where it comes from.”

He could “get on his knees…because he knows where it comes from.” You have to love Zito, Dutrow, and trainers like them, who take the show on the road wherever they run.

Zito mentioned the 1962 and 1966 runnings of the Kentucky Derby when Graustark and Sir Gaylord were the early favorites, respectively. Of particular interest is the story of Graustark who’s trainer was ridiculed for his handling in the weeks leading up to the Derby and his subsequent scratch.

The Derby has a less than favorable history with its favorite runners. Most of them don’t win, and sometimes they don’t get in. Last year I Want Revenge was scratched the morning of the race, and has not run back since. This year it looked like Eskendereya would give John Velasquez his first Kentucky Derby winning ride. Both horses were headed into the Derby starting gate as the favorite after stunning performances in the Wood.

Lookin’ At Lucky is currently the favorite. But that may not be so lucky because history tells us that anything can happen.

And, if they happen to drape the roses over Devil May Care on Saturday it wouldn’t be the first time, and it won’t be the last.

After all, roses are for girls anyway, right?

On Saturday Bob Baffert sends out Lookin’ At Lucky for his final prep before the Kentucky Derby in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.

From a betting standpoint it’s a tough race to handicap even though Lookin’ At Lucky looks pretty good on paper at 4 to 5 odds. And that should make any ‘exotic attempt’ to cash a winning ticket that much easier, assuming Baffert is trying to win it.

Here’s why I won’t be putting my money down in the G1 Santa Anita Derby this Saturday. Baffert was quoted in the Daily Racing Form saying:

“I just want him to come out of the race healthy and alive,” and “It’s not a do-or-die race for me. If I can keep him fit and healthy, he can carry me the rest of the way.”

Well that’s nice to know for the other owners and trainers who are willing to try and take that statement to the bank this weekend. Even a second or third placed finish for a purse of $750,000 on Saturday might be enough in earnings to get into the Derby.

It’s understandable that Baffert wanted or needed to get one more ‘hard work’ into Lookin’ At Lucky before the Kentucky Derby. He has a right to run him and I’m sure they will be trying. But you have to be able to read between the lines of the Daily Racing Form. And sometimes those lines tell you to wonder that if Gomez gets stuck down on the inside or blocked in mid-stretch would he instinctively try to win it or instructively try to protect the horse at ALL cost.

Sit back and enjoy the race. If you like Lookin’ At Lucky this time you should love him in a few weeks at a bigger price. And at least you know they’ll be trying as hard as everyone else.

Are you Lookin’ At Lucky?

Nick Zito sends two to take home the title

Nick Zito has done it. He’s the one who has clouded the Kentucky Derby picture.

Today’s race was picture perfect as the track played fair all day. The thing that kept us on Miners Reserve was Johnny V’s. win stalking the lead going a mile and an eigth. It was picture perfect from the beginning and we thought that Desormeaux was going to go up in there but decided to teach the horse something about rating.

We understand but we don’t like the strategy because we bet our money.

But they played it right and one thing is for sure — Rule is out at the Derby distance and he can only hurt Pletchers’ other fingers.

Eskendereya looks pretty good at this point. But there’s still plenty of time to think about a possible Kentucky Derby future wager in Pool 3 to hedge our Pool 2 bet. The final running time of the Florida Derby 1:49:19 and :26′s at the end.

Come to think of it maybe the picture isn’t so cloudy after all.

Race of the Day — March 20, 2010

Florida Derby
G1 Purse $750K
1 mile 1/8
Conventional Dirt Track

Sunny tomorrow. High temperature 77.

#1 Soaring Empire — Gambolati can condition a champion and this one is from Flying Passage. His sire won this race in 2003 but was runner up to Funny Cide in the Derby that year.

#2 Lentenor — This one hails from the Matz barn as the full brother to Barbaro who won this race before winning the Derby in 2006. Goes conventional for the first time in his career but appears to be Barbaro’s brother from another mother.

#3 Pulsion — Good to see Biancone winning races in Florida.

#4 Pleasant Prince — Exits FOY when finishing a dismal fourth at long odds. Leparoux rode this horse in his maiden win at Churchill — the running line reads “angled out, closed fast” and Julien hasn’t given up.

#5 Game on Dude — Awesome Again will probably throw a Kentucky Derby winner real soon. This one broke in the air going a mile last time and still beat eight others impressively. WOW!

#6 First Dude – Two dudes in one race and this looks like a desperation run as Romans summons Dominguez from NY. Should lead.

#7 Rule – the luke warm favorite at 5 to 2 and a look at the others entered in here tells us this is the weakest of Pletcher’s hopefuls which makes this a weak Florida Derby.

#8 Ice Box — Another who exits the Fountain of Youth and runs here in the absense of Eskendereya. Beaten by Rule but has a win at the distance.

#9 Miner’s Reserve — Loved this one’s win last month to earn the same number of Beyer points as Radiohead. Can’t imagine Zito wheeling him right back in here after only three weeks rest but Desormeaux knows how to win this even with Zito’s dismal stakes record. WOW!

#10 Best Actor — Son of Rock Hard Ten has his work cut out for him in here.

#11 Radiohead — Dutrow will have no choice but to send to get over several positions towards the rail. There are several who should go inside of him but on Rule probably will. Should control the speed from the outside.

The selections: 9 – 11 – 5 – 8

Clear skies expected for Hallandale, Fl today.